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The Technology sector  continues to struggle , showing little evidence of a tradable low. Within it, software plays a crucial role in gauging market strength. These have been the best stocks to own over the past 15 years. They’re true secular leaders. They are some of the best businesses. Basically, as they go, so goes the market. The Software ETF $IGV is retesting its prior cycle highs from...

Historically, it moves in lockstep with the 10 year yield — and right now, there’s a glaring gap. If that gap closes, copper’s about to get loud. And it’s already whispering.

Copper just hit a 52 week high.

International stocks are starting to hum.

Momentum always shows up quietly before it slams the door. Here’s the kicker: global growth isn’t being driven by the usual suspects. It’s not the...

You simply don't have any American Mega-cap Tech stocks in Europe (FEZ), which is up over 14.5% this quarter. Latin America (ILF) and Africa (AFK) are each up 13.5% this quarter. And Chinese Internet (KWEB) is up 20%.  These are historic returns to start the year. And I'm not cherry picking here. We're literally talking about every continent except North America.  Meanwhile, the S&P500, Dow Jones...

When a decline gets too stretched, it shows the asset is oversold. A snapback rally usually follows. And that makes the RSI a useful contrarian indicator.An RSI below 30 is considered oversold. And the Russell 2000's RSI recently plunged to 24. Take a look...   The Russell 2000 crashed. But according to the RSI, this move is likely overdone... And small caps are likely to rebound from...

When gold makes a big move, the rest of the commodities market plays catch-up. And right now, that’s exactly what’s happening. Copper is now knocking on the door of new all-time highs.    Meanwhile, Silver is testing a 13-year breakout. Look at the size of this base:  The big money has already started shifting — are you paying attention?

When we look at it on a relative basis, it’s been carving out a massive top against the S&P 500.  Right now, the ratio sits near its lower bounds—neither breaking down nor catching a bid higher.  We’re just hanging in there. How this resolves will shape our positioning in the weeks ahead.

If a stock is above its 200-day, it’s probably not in a downtrend. The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid with the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average.   This gives us a broad view of what is going on beneath the hood.  During strong and healthy bull markets, I expect the indicator to remain elevated. Right now, that percentage has dropped to its lowest level since...

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”  — Shelby Davis

$SPY $QQQ Very interesting analog. New ATH's coming before Summer imo.

But these are the key levels for the S&P500.   If the S&P500 is below 5600, which is about 560 for $SPY, then that's a big problem for the direction of the market. Below 560 and this is not an uptrend, but a sideways trend at best, and possibly even a downtrend. The Nasdaq100 $QQQ already broke that level and is still stuck below it. 500 is the equivalent level for the QQQs. 

The real sweet spot comes three to six months after a correction signal. Six months post-correction, the IXIC has averaged a 16% gain, with 78% of returns positive. When the index moved higher over that period, the average return was over 23%. Notably, in 18 of the 23 corrections since 1990, the IXIC never fell into bear market territory (-20%) before reaching a new all-time high.  Slow Bleed vs....

Gold just hit 3,000 for the first time in history. Silver is  setting up for a move  to 50. And Copper keeps pushing at the upper bounds of a multi-year base.  That 5 level is the line in the sand for Dr. Copper.  Any breakout above this zone will embark it on a fresh leg higher. Looking for uncorrelated trades in this environment has been the right move.

The next full Moon will be the third full Moon of 2025, the Worm Moon rising on 14th March at 18:40 UTC.The Worm Moon will also be the  14 March 2025 lunar eclipse  visible from North America, Europa and the UK.And there are four supermoons in 2025:

Harvest Moon  – 7 October
Beaver Moon  – 5 November
Cold Moon  – 4 December

Full Moon 2025

Markets bottom the same way, over and over again.  And then he laid it out: 
📌  A lot of market bottoms happen in March and October.
📌  Stocks tend to V-bottom. Commodities? They consolidate, base, then turn.
📌  And the last one is weird… full moons.  

Seriously. Full moons. At first, I thought he was joking. But then I started looking into it. Turns out,  Paul Montgomery —a legit market...

Natural Gas Demand is Surging In 2023, global demand for natural gas surged, making the U.S. the world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). That momentum hasn’t slowed in 2024, and in 2025, the trend is only  accelerating . 

Following the news, investors panicked and the markets crashed. While this was five years ago, I want to bring this up today because the folks at Bespoke Investment Group recently pointed out that the S&P 500’s actions over the past three weeks have been eerily similar to the same three-week period in 2020. You may recall that the S&P 500 peaked and hit a new all-time high on February 19, 2020,...

There are two key variables that influence the price of each stock you own

The earnings of your underlying companies
The multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings – which we can think of as “investor sentiment”

But see how this flips the further out you go (the columns to the right).

$APP might be the strongest stock in the market per @MarketSurge metrics coupled with the weakest price action on the pullback. A big mover still trading at a 99 RS rating. Expect good things soon. #IBDPartner

The Large-Cap China ETF $FXI just hit 18-month highs relative to the S&P 500 $SPY, signaling a potential shift in market leadership.   A trend reversal seems to be in play in favor of Chinese equities. No one’s talking about it. Everyone’s ignoring these stocks. The rules have changed.  What worked in previous years isn’t necessarily going to cut it today. In a market like this, uncorrelated...

 Here's the daily chart for the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor Fund (MTUM)... We don't trade this fund a lot, but it's an important tool... It tracks large-cap and small-cap stocks that exhibit higher price momentum.This MTUM chart is simple... You can see the 200-day moving average (200-DMA) above, in red, which helps clarify the long-term trend.Back in August 2024, the fund briefly fell below...

As I've said a whole bunch of times, if the Semiconductor Index completes this massive top relative to the S&P500, then chances are that the bull market is cancelled. With Semi's rallying this week, despite the selling pressure in other areas of the market, that alpha put the Semiconductor Index back above all that support, invalidating any bearish implications that may have occurred earlier in...

During recessions and credit crises, the spread soars. You can see this in the chart below. It also shows what has happened to the high-yield credit spread since the 1990s, with recessions highlighted in gray...   During recessions, bankruptcies spike and investors want nothing to do with corporate bonds. Their prices plummet, and their yields soar. That makes them  safer  to own.Today, with the...

The U.S. Dollar having its worst week in years is probably helping to drive this rotation:   I think this U.S. Dollar selloff has been SO dramatic, that it's accelerated this rotation into international stocks to the point where U.S. stocks, particularly the Large-cap Growth areas, are being used as a source of funds for this rotation. It's not so much that the stock market wants a higher dollar...

First, is this thing about investor sentiment. How is it possible that individual investors in America are the most bearish they've been since the bottom of the last bear market back in 2022?   I think it's because of what they own. They're not in  China , which is making new 3-year highs.  They're not in  Germany, or Europe , which are hitting new all-time highs. They're in mega-cap US growth...

A hammer is found at the bottom of a downtrend and can signal a change in the trend. We won’t know until Monday morning with confirmation of the  ES1! trading higher.